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Following up on his previous article on the composition of the Irish Rugby World Cup Squad, John takes a look at how the games against Wales and Scotland may have changed things, or not.
Players who enhanced their reputations
Well Jamie Heaslip and Paul O’Connell, but they are guaranteed big game starters obviously. Reddan, Madigan, Earls, Zebo, Ryan, Kilcoyne, Bent, Cave and on a very short cameo Dave Kearney
What remains unchanged?
In the Second row its still Paulie & Dev with Hendo on the bench and Ryan as 4th lock. Tuohy is the special extra.
In the Back Row it still looks like O’Mahony, O’Brien Heaslip with Jordi Murphy and Chris Henry. Tommy O’Donnell staked a serious claim to replace Murphy or Henry until he was struck down by the 75th minute serious hip injury. Which makes Jack Conan (The destroyer) the next up.
Nothing really changed at Hooker either with Best, Cronin & Strauss up front with Herring as the next cab off the rank.
At Centre, the starting centres seem to be still nailed on from the 6 nations. Henshaw and Payne. More of the backups later.
What has changed?
Prop is interesting. With all fit it would have to be the 6 nations combos of Ross/Moore and Healy/McGrath with Bent covering both sides. (i.e no change). Moore seems to have foot issues though and Healy….. well he is touch and go to make the opening game v Canada. So Kilcoyne and White seem to be the next up with the further options of Tadhg Furlong (who could have been ahead of White if he did not have his own niggles) and Denis Buckley.
As for Out half, obviously the best OH in the NH and most expensive Ireland player…. JS. Behind him the perceived wisdom has been that Paddy Jackson would start games if JS was injured, but Madigan would get the 22 jersey if JS was fit due to versatility and his golden boot, leaving Keately and perhaps JJ Hanrahan as injury cover.
After Madigan’s very good showing v Scotland (baring a horrendous restart and a few missed tackles) and PJ’s faulty kicking v Wales, it would seem that Mads may have slipped ahead. Making him second or third choice in up to 4 positions.
Which leads us neatly on to scrum half. Here is where the interesting rumours start. Giuseppe Ferrari (That’s Josef Schmidt to you lads) is reputed to be considering emulating his Leinster predecessor Cheika in taking only 2 scrum halves. Murray and Reddan (who had a super game v Wales) to allow more centre and back three cover. Obviously if he does Boss and Marmion will be on a hair trigger to step in if needed.
So, to the REALLY interesting bits.
Rob Kearney seems to be the only back 3 player to be nailed on. Bringing us to a total of 26. The last 5 have to supply 2 wingers and cover for centre, back 3 and maybe scrum half. If rumours are true and Boss & Marmion will be cooling their heels then 5 of these guys are up.
Andrew Trimble
Keith Earls
Tommy Bowe
Luke Fitzgerald
Simon Zebo
Dave Kearney
Gordon D’Arcy
Darren Cave
Felix Jones
Fergus McFadden
Craig Gilroy.
Some serious names in that 11 and AT LEAST 6 will have to lose out. The 3 who are the most versatile, and also possess serious x factor, are Earls, Fitzgerald and Zebo (after his cameo at full back). That cameo could have sunk the ship of perennial Schmidt favourite Felix Jones.
Gilroy has not had a look in yet and maybe he won’t with all the players that need a run in the back 3. Fergus McFadden was solid but unspectacular in a game v weak opposition. That could leave those 3 players in the injury cover spots.
D’arcy and Cave will not both go. In fact possibly neither will. Trimble looked great v Wales but will he stay fit with a foot injury?
Tommy Bowe may not be sown into the 14 jersey like he has been but it is hard to see him left at home either. Very tough decisions but the only change I would make from my previous selection is Keith Earls ahead of Gordon D’Arcy with a choice between Dave Kearney, Darce and Cave to come in if Trimble does not regain fitness OR if Joe decides to go with just 2 scrum halves. Will Joe risk 2 Scrum halves (Madigan as emergency 9) to bring Darce on his final fling?
More headaches if anything rather than less.
What has emerged is a new class of player. The player who is good enough but just doesn’t make the plane. We have never had too many of them. Tommy Bowe and Jamie Heaslip in 07. Luke Fitz in 11. Certainly there are a few more. But nothing like the list we have now.
If you consider the 8 players who would not make the starting 23 v France but will travel (numbers 24 to 31). Just trying to pick another 8 behind them (i.e. numbers 32 to 39) is tricky in some positions.
You need
- A 4th hooker – Herring
- A 5th second row – Tuohy
- A 6th and perhaps 7th prop – Kilcoyne, White,
- A 6th Back row – Conan
- A 3rd (or 4th) scrum half – Boss, Marmion
- A 4th outhalf – Keatley
- A 4th centre – Cave
- A 6th (or 7th) back 3 player – Dave Kearney
Players like Fergus McFadden and Craig Gilroy can’t even break the top 40. Or if they do equally good players will miss out. Did I mention McCloskey, Olding, Reid, Mike McCarthy, Furlong, Buckley, Luke Marshall . We could get to 50. Fairly unheard of in these parts.
Hard to believe it but International Rugby starts next weekend. The world and her husband will be trying hard to predict the mind of the inscrutable Mr Josef Schmidt.
So what the hell. I thought I’d have a go too.
The only caveat is that we will have to assume that all players will remain fit. (Even Cian Healy)
Let’s see how hard it is to count up to 31, for that is the magic number of a world cup squad,
We can probably start with the team that won the 6 nations. How many of them are indispensable?
Quite a few I would have thought.
Rob Kearney
Tommy Bowe
Jared Payne
Robbie Henshaw
Conor Murray
Rory Best
Mike Ross
Devin Toner
Paul O’Connell
Peter O’Mahony
All started every single game in the same position. Jonny Sexton would have had he been fit. Sean O’Brien also. Only for a vicious knee in the back Jamie Heaslip would have been guaranteed a start too.
That’s 13 players.
Sean Cronin
Marty Moore
Iain Henderson
All took the same spot on the bench for all 5 games. (So did Ian Madigan and Felix Jones, but more of that later)
We are up to 16.
Jack McGrath and Cian Healy shared the 1 and 17 jerseys so both of them will travel.
That’s 18.
Simon Zebo and Luke Fitzgerald both started at 11. Assuming they both will travel we are at 20.
So. What other assumptions can we make before things get complicated?
The back 5 of the pack seems like a good place to start.
In addition to O’Connell, Toner and Henderson we need one of Tuohy and Donncha Ryan in the 2nd row.
My money is on Ryan if he stays fit. He is on a central contract and would seem to be next in line. If both are in similar shape I would give Ryan the edge. If Ryan is not 100% then perhaps Tuohy might get through. So as we are assuming all fit Ryan gets the nod
21!
In the back row, with Ruddock injured you would have to assume that Jordi Murphy and Chris Henry will bring us up to 23.
Tommy O’Donnell could feel hard done by, mainly because he is less versatile across the back row than the other 2, but a good performance in the warm ups or a disaster from one of the others and things could change.
Another easy choice is Richardt Strauss to get in ahead of fellow South African Rob Herring for the 3rd hooking spot.
24……. Getting tight now.
On to the halfbacks.
We need one or two more out halves and Paddy Jackson seems in flying form for Ulster. Most of the smart money is on Ian Madigan getting in also, because of his golden boot and his versatility.
There is a school of thought that says Gordon D’Arcy will get in to cover centre at the expense of Madigan, but that is a bit left field and there is also a chance that both could travel.
So let’s go with 3 out halves for now.
Aulfellahs Eoin Reddan and Isaac Boss to stay in front of Marmion for the extra scrum half berths.
That’s 28!
Only 3 places left! We are down to the hardest to predict places with the most candidates in each position.
The outside backs and the props.
The candidates in the current training squad at prop are:
Dennis Buckley
Michael Bent
Tadhg Furlong
Nathan White
David Kilcoyne.
And the current outside back options are.
Gordon D’Arcy
Felix Jones
Andrew Trimble
Keith Earls
Noel Reid
Darren Cave
Dave Kearney
Fergus McFadden
Craig Gilroy.
That’s a lot of players for 3 places.
Firstly. What configuration will we get?
Will Michael Bent’s ability to play both sides of the scrum see him as the 5th and last prop?
Or will Joe take 6 props? Then it is between the experience of Nathan White and the Explosive power of youngster Tadhg Furlong at Tight head.
The aforementioned Michael Bent would have to compete with Denis Buckley and David Kilcoyne for the loose head berth.
If 6 props travel, then things get very complicated in the outside backs, with the top 4 contenders scrapping for just 1 place.
Would you fancy telling 3 of Keith Earls, Gordon D’Arcy, Andrew Trimble and Felix Jones that they had to miss out?
Personally I think I would go with just 5 props. Your mileage may vary.
Even then how do you decide between the talent and versatility of Keith Earls, the experience of Gordon D’Arcy, the player of the 2014 6 nations Andrew Trimble and the man who made every squad in the 2015 6 nations, Felix Jones?
My personal preferences are as follows.
Over to you Joe.
Props (5)
Jack McGrath
Cian Healy
Mike Ross
Marty Moore
Michael Bent
Hookers (3)
Rory Best
Sean Cronin
Richardt Strauss
2nd Rows (4)
Devin Toner
Paul O’Connell
Iain Henderson
Donncha Ryan
Back Rows (5)
Sean O’Brien
Jamie Heaslip
Peter O’Mahony
Jordi Murphy
Chris Henry
Halfbacks (6)
Conor Murray
Eoin Reddan
Isaac Boss
Jonny Sexton
Paddy Jackson
Ian Madigan
Centres (3)
Jared Payne
Robbie Henshaw
Gordon D’Arcy
Back 3 (5)
Rob Kearney
Tommy Bowe
Simon Zebo
Luke Fitzgerald
Andrew Trimble
Extremely hard done by
Keith Earls
Felix Jones
Dave Kilcoyne
Tommy O’Donnell
Nathan White
Tadhg Furlong
“There can be only one”
It’s that time of year again, when we pause slightly from the exciting Six Nations tournament and take a look at the Guinness Pro12 runners and riders.
Nine league games left. 4 during the Six nations. All teams, with the possible exception of the Dragons, with something to play for.
Now that we have European places riding on league placings it makes things more exciting with several “Inception, Film within a Film” scenarios going on.
Firstly we have a race for the playoff places as usual. With a race for home semi finals at the top.
Secondly we have a race for European Champions Cup (Effectively Top 6) places opening another front below the playoff spots.
Thirdly we have a race for a European playoff between 7th place in the 3 Euro leagues. Slightly more complicated by the allocating of a playoff spot for the Euro Challenge Cup winners to any unqualified team, ahead of the 7th place team in their league.
And Finally we have a race for the last Euro Champ Cup place (between the two Italian sides)
Got the hang of it? Yep. It’s far too complicated. (and I haven’t even dealt with what happens if we get more or less than 3 nations in the top 7)
So. Firstly. The Race to the top.
5 teams in a race for 4 spots.
Ospreys, (44 pts) Glasgow, (43) Munster, (42) Leinster (41) & Ulster (39).
It’s surely tight at the top. With the top 2 sides having to play each other twice, giving a chance to the Irish Provinces stacked up behind.
Here are the 9 crunch games between the top 5 that could decide the placings. 4 of them during the 6 nations. 4 of them in the last 3 rounds, and Leinster v Glasgow in the RDS in between.
Sat 21 Feb…Glasgow… v…Ospreys
Fri 27 Feb…Ospreys… v …Leinster
Sat 28 Feb…Munster… v…Glasgow
Sat 7 Mar…Ospreys… v…Munster
Fri 27 Mar…Leinster… v…Glasgow
Fri 24 Apr…Ulster Rugby…v …Leinster
8/9/10 May…Ospreys…v…Glasgow
8/9/10 May…Ulster…v…Munster
15/16/17 May…Glasgow…v…Ulster
Ospreys play in 4 of them (3 at home)
Glasgow in 5 of them (2 at home)
Munster in 3 of them (1 at home)
Leinster in 3 of them (1 at home)
Ulster in 4 of them (2 at home)
Perhaps another disadvantage to the current top 2. Glasgow certainly. The top 4 play each other over the last few days of this month and that will be crucial for all 5 of the teams in question
Ospreys: As mentioned they have to play Glasgow home and away.
This 6 Nations period is tough for them as they have both Scottish teams away and the top 2 Irish sides at home.
If they are still in the top two after these games though, they have a great chance of staying there.
Glasgow: Possibly the hardest run in with the only bright spots being home and away to Zebre.
They have Ospreys, Munster and Leinster away, and Ulster and Ospreys at home.
Hard to see them in the top 2 after all that, despite the fact that they have no Euro distractions.
Munster: Two away games in Wales during the 6 Nations, but things ease up a little afterwards with just an away trip to Ulster to worry about. No Euro distractions either.
Ulster: They have it relatively easy during the 6 Nations, but things heat up in the closing stages with Connacht and Glasgow away and Leinster and Munster at home.
Leinster: After two relatively soft games in 5 days, things get harder with the same two away games in Wales as Munster.
Again like Munster there is an away trip to Ulster afterwards but also some Euro distraction in the form of Bath.
The crucial point for Leinster here is how we do in the away games in Wales.
Having used up our margin for error by losing back to back to Munster, we really need to get back on track by winning here.
If we can win both we could take a loss in Ulster and still make a home semi. Lose either one and we are under pressure.
Lose both and I predict an away semi final in the Pro12 at best.
My prediction would be 2 of Ospreys, Munster and Leinster for the home semis with Glasgow and Ulster perhaps playing for the last spot in the last game.
However there are always upsets and one thing for sure is that some unfancied team will take the scalp of a higher one and upset my predictions somewhere.
Just hope Leinster will not be that scalp
This year with the final fixed in Belfast top spot in the league is not as crucial as it will not determine the final venue.
The battle for 6th and 7th spot (Auto qualification to the Champs Cup and entry to a playoff) is a 3 way battle at the moment, with an outside chance of Cardiff discovering some form and joining the battle.
Connacht lead the way, but probably have a harder run than Scarlets.
You would have to fancy the Scarlets.
If they are in contention after the 6 Nations they have a very easy run to the end.
Connacht’s main chance is to beat them this weekend and get on a roll.
If not they are locked in a battle with Edinburgh for a playoff spot.
Interestingly Edinburgh have 2 chances of making this playoff.
Firstly by winning league games and secondly by winning the Challenge cup.
This route is also open to the Dragons and Cardiff (Who play each other in the quarter final) and of course Connacht.
However I fancy an English team to win the Challenge Cup this year. Most likely Gloucester and if not then Exeter.
That just leaves the Italian shoot out.
I think we need another year or 2 of rebuilding in Treviso and just “building” in Zebre before we can get too excited either way.
Both teams seem nailed on for 11th and 12th in the League.
JohnG
When the great news broke today that Rob Kearney had signed a new contract, it seemed like as good a time as any to look at the Leinster squad for next season.
Quite a few players have contracts expiring this season. More than 2/3s of the squad
There are also 8 Academy players finishing.
So to break it down into categories…….
1/ The Aulfellahs
Ross
D’Arcy
Boss
The 3 oldest members of the squad. If all or any of them decided to call it a day after the WC they would owe Leinster and Irish Rugby nothing and we could pat them on the back for a job well done.
However. If any of them were up for another year they would be a great addition to the squad and 2 of them are starting Irish Internationals. Entirely up to the players themselves. I’d say they would all be given another year if they were up for it.
Also it feels good to call guys who were born when I was a teenager aulfellahs.
2/ Stand alone Eoin
Reddan is in great form and will turn 35 just after the world cup. Not that much younger than Boss but if we can only keep one……… He definitely has another year in him.
3/ The Prime beef
Strauss
Cronin
Moore
Fitzgerald
Toner
McFadden
All Irish Internationals in their prime. Sign them up now! All of these players are under 30 and have many years left in blue and green. Barring injury of course.
4/ The back row…… forwards.
Ryan
Murphy
Conan
McLaughlin
Jennings
With Heaslip, Ruddock and O’Brien signed up already; can we keep all of these guys? I am hoping the answer is yes. 3 of them are already Irish Internationals. Ryan must be not so much knocking on the door as kicking it off its hinges. Conan looks the real deal too any time he has played.
We also have Leavy and Van Der Flier coming out of the Academy who are very likely to get development contracts. Leavy in particular looks mature beyond his years and well able to step up.
5/ The second row…. backwards.
Marshall
Denton
Roux
With McCarthy and Douglas and hopefully Toner signed up, the race is on to see who will fill their size 15 boots when they are away or injured?
Beirne & Thornbury finishing the Academy too.
8 locks is probably a couple too many. For me Marshall is a good abrasive player and Denton is a reliable back up.
It remains to be seen if Roux can deliver on his early pre injury promise and the 2 academy lads have not had many opportunities to shine. They could be overtaken by their younger academy colleague Ross Moloney
6/ The Happy Hookers
Dundon
Tracy
Moran
The 2 starters (Cronin and Strauss) will hopefully be looked after, so we will not need all of these lads. Bryan Byrne looks to be ahead of them so I’d say perhaps only one of them will be still here next season. Dundon is excellent but ageing and we have not seen enough of the other 2 to judge.
7/ Back by Propular demand
Furlong
Bent
No brainer to sign these guys again with 4 props missing to Team Ireland for up to 15 games per season. Furlong has massive promise and Bent must be one of the best 3rd or 4th choice props in Europe.
8/ The Byrnes
4 of them in the Academy but it is the twin brothers we are concerned with here.
Loose head props and hookers work together as a team at scrum time. How much advantage can you get by having a team of guys who have been together since they emerged from the womb?
Add to that the fact that they both have looked the real deal individually any time they have played first team Rugby and you are looking at the words development and contract. We may well have to sweeten the deal as I can see other teams wanting to have a sniff round these lads.
9/ The Scrummies
Luke McGrath and John Cooney.
With ageing players ahead of them, will Leinster go to the market or back one or both of these guys? Perhaps they will go to the market AND develop one of them. McGrath looks like he has pole position.
10/ The NIQs
Gopperth
Kirchner
It looks like Jimmy will be away on his toes at the end of the year due to Jonny’s return. I would be happy to sign Zane again as he is a great pro. Will Leinster look to the post world cup exodus for new blood though? Or will the IRFU “guidelines” kick in as he is over 30?
If neither one is signed we have 3 full NIQ spots available as Te’o qualifies as a project and Quin Roux (should we re-sign him) would be Irish qualified next season.
11/ The squad men
Macken
Coghlan-Murray
M McGrath
O’Shea
Fanning
And the remaining academy graduates Marsh and Coughlan.
Not everyone can be a Sean O’Brien or a Rob Kearney. These guys get the job done when the chips are down, and our run of 10 top 3 finishes in the league is testament to the strength of guys like these.
Coughlan-Murray, and O’Shea do not seem to be getting a look in this season, Jordan Coughlan’s experimental journey to the backs seems to have been forsaken which leaves us wondering will they be here next year?
But Fanning (in particular) and Mick McGrath have performed well, and Marsh (with Gopperth leaving) should have plenty to do.
Brendan Macken, we always felt, had more to offer but time is ticking on him to kick up a level now and push for international honours. He has had a decent amount of game time this season and has not looked much more than solid. He certainly has the goods to go further. Perhaps a spell away from the province would help him ignite his career? Who knows?
What do you think?
Recently we posted a blog about replacing Drico. The conclusion of which was that we should look for a player from the southern hemisphere, but not despair if we did not find one as we had options.
Well guess what? We got a player from the southern hemisphere! Perhaps not from the source we were expecting though.
Step forward Ben Te’o. From the world of the NRL (Aussie Rugby league)
Definitely from left field. Many possible pitfalls, but possibly a big return too if all the stars align.
Where to begin? The NRL.
NRL is the 2nd most popular pro team sport in Australia behind AFL (What we call Aussie Rules) Rugby (Union) is in third place (just about) vying with Soccer.
League is a big working man’s sport down under, just like it is in the north of England. There is a lot of tabloid hype around it and it is famous for some bad boy behaviour. Both on and off the field.
Ben Te’o is no stranger to either. He is currently serving a ban for a dangerous tackle which will keep him out until the 3rd last weekend of the (NRL)season. This is his third ban this year.
Off the field he has had bad press too. Most noticeably last year when he was accused of assaulting a woman. A charge of which he was cleared and has always denied.
So. He is now 27 years old. An age when men typically look at their place in life and how content with it they are. Perhaps he wants out of the fishbowl and a chance for a clean slate. He possibly feels that he has been wrongly given a bad name and wants to start again.
While Ben Te’o is a Kiwi and therefore had a rugby ball in his hand at least a month before he left the womb, he has spent the last 10 years playing the “wrong” kind of rugby. He would have played a decent bit of Union in school before emigrating to the Gold coast in Queensland at 17, but that is a looong time ago.
Massive gamble for both Leinster and Te’o you would think? You would be right.
Lets take a look at the risk and reward factors……
He has become used to rugby league which, while it has the same ball and a lot in common with Union, has a serious amount of differences at the most basic level. No lineouts, no mauls, no rucks, no flankers, uncontested scrums etc. etc.
If you look at the most successful league converts they have mostly been in the back 3 (Israel Folau, Lote Tuqiri, Jason Robinson, Wendell Sailor, hell even Chris Ashton) We seem to be looking at Ben Te’o to play in the Centre. Not only that but in our most famous jersey too. Thinking of another League forward (cause Te’o is a forward in league) who played in the centre in Union. Andy Farrell. (Owen’s aulfellah) Total legend in League, not so much in Union. You could say that he was older than Ben Te’o and had a lot of injuries by the time he hit Union though.
Te’o has a reputation as a big hitting hard man, and many people are saying that Matt O’Connor is looking to use him in the way he used Manu Tuilagi in Leicester. Personally I think we have a lot more going on in the backs than Leicester and that they would like to be made more like us than visa versa. We could make more of that type of player.
With Ian Madigan at either 10 or 12 who can take the eye out of a spider at 50 paces with his pass, we could easily have the option of bypassing him while he takes two defenders out of the game just as a small example. Punching a large hole and getting his arms around for a league style offload is another.
Defence however is another matter entirely. Defending the 13 channel is notoriously difficult to defend as you have such a large amount of grass to cover. We have been lucky in having one of the sharpest minds in reading the game defensively (well every way really) for the last 15 years or so. Can Te’o learn quickly when to shoot up and cripple someone and when to hang back and drift?
Which leads me on to one of the reasons I actually like this signing.
Te’o is as different a player to the great man as day is to night. The default signing would be someone like Conrad Smith who plays a lot like Drico. This forces us to change the way we play entirely. Which in my opinion is a good thing. Although if Drico could be talked into giving him a few pointers, that would be good too.
When Rocky Elsom left in 2009, many of us were calling for Leinster to splash the cash in an attempt to replace him. Instead we went with Kevin McLaughlin and Sean O’Brien and were forced to change our game.
Evolve or die.
The model that Toulon used against us to such great effect with Wilkinson/Giteau or Giteau/Mermoz inside a big lump (Basteraud) has become increasingly popular and effective.
Another positive note that has been reported in the media is that Matt O’Connor was a centre himself who switched between League and Union so A/ he would have experience and B/ he would know what to look for in a centre who could make the transition.
By all accounts he has been chasing Te’o for a while. Te’o having visited Dublin on at least one occasion.
Ben Te’o could be a spectacular failure who ends up crawling back to League after a season. Like Benji Maaashal. He could be an inspired success and a vindication of thinking outside the box, or he could just be a solid enough player who kicks the can down the road for a year or 2 while we incubate the massive amount of talented backs we have in our Academy.
I would be happy enough with option 3 to be honest, but wouldn’t it be great if he could be closer to 2.
When a player pulls on a blue jersey and hitches his wagon to us, he automatically gets a pass from me untill he has played a number of games for us. Perhaps Ben will need the guts of a full season to get to grips with a new game in a new hemisphere.
He will get every opportunity, and living 16000 km from home will give him the fresh start he seems to be looking for. Hopefully he does not get bogged down like Lote in…. other persuits.
So from a glass half full perspective, it should be a very interesting season to come.
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